6 buyer-beware NFL free agents

Free agency is the main way that NFL teams are able to fill their needs over the offseasons. Sometimes the perfect signing can turn a team into a contender but sometimes it looks like money down the drain in hindsight. These are some players this year that will go for more money than they are likely to live up to.

1. Bud Dupree, LB: It may seem a bit harsh to put this label on a guy who has been as productive as Dupree has been these past couple of years. The main problem with Dupree is that he probably won’t come very close to his recent level of play as the best edge rusher on a team. Dupree complements one of the best players in the league in TJ Watt very well but a lot of the reason for Dupree’s numbers is the threat of TJ Watt. If Dupree was going to a team with an established edge rusher and at a reasonable number, he’d have the potential to be a great signing, but that just isn’t the case. Instead he’ll probably get a huge contract from a team where Dupree would have to be the main pass rushing threat. In an environment like that, it wouldn’t be surprising if that team ends up regretting their decision.
2. Aaron Jones, RB: As the top running back that is available this year, it isn’t surprising that Jones is on this list. We’ve had plenty of evidence over the past few years that putting a bunch of money into this position can be a recipe for disaster. Additionally, all of Jones’ production has come in probably the most favorable offense for a running back. Jones has spent his past few seasons with one of the best offensive lines in all of football, the threat of Aaron Rodgers preventing teams from stacking the box, and a great offensive head coach in Matt LaFleur. To make matters worse, the Packers other running backs have also performed well in this offense. While Jones is a pretty good back, the price tag is going to be far too high for this to be a good value signing.
3. Matthew Judon, Edge: Judon has been good for a while now and unlike Dupree, he has shown himself to be capable as a team’s to edge. The issue with signing Judon is that he has been playing in a scheme that has really helped him get gaudy numbers. The blitz heavy defense of the Ravens has made Judon’s life very easy when compared to edges in other schemes. He may well be able to adjust and step up to the new challenge and excel but it’s hard to tell. Teams should think long and hard before investing heavy resources into Judon.
4. Xavier Rhodes, CB: People might remember the player that Xavier Rhodes has been in the past when he hits the open market this year. His years as one of the top corners in the game seemingly ended with a disastrous season for the Vikings in 2019. Then he made a massive improvement to his play in 2020 but that may be a false alarm in some ways. He fits what the Colts want in a corner, but that isn’t true for most teams. As long as he stays with the colts (or ends up in a similar scheme) he will be a solid signing. But if a team tries to make Rhodes the player that he used to be, things could unravel rather quickly.
5. Jadeveon Clowney, DE: It’s hard for me to put him on this list because of the player he can still become. A former first pick in the draft, Clowney has been derailed by injuries at points of his career. At some points of his career he has clearly shown his talent but he hasn’t recently. While he can still turn around his recent play, giving big money to a guy that only has three sacks in the last two seasons is never a good idea. The recent production hasn’t all been injuries too, he is averaging a sack every 7 games in the last two seasons.
6. Cam Newton, QB: Cam Newton is not highly rated right now but signing him is still a risk. He looked like MVP Cam before getting COVID last year, so that gives some hope of a turnaround but his play down the stretch will make any team think twice. There isn’t a good chance that a team gives him an opportunity to start again this year and for good reason. While he was on a team with basically no good skill players, his play was simply inexcusable. In his last 7 games of the season his highest adjusted QBR was 70.8 against the lowly Jets. Pair that with multiple single digit games in that stat and you get a quarterback that can’t be relied upon. While a Cam revival would be fun, no team should sign him as anything other than a backup.